Fault Lines in World's Political Life

Since the beginning of the global economic crises, the stress of the world has been increasing steadily. Therefore, energy accumulation of the fault lines at the world political life may create new earthquakes in the world political system.

The global economic crises started with the mortgage crises in USA and then spread to EU and other part of the world. Millions of people lost their job as a result of global economic crisis in the world. Today, because of the globalization and internalization of the production process, any economic development, positive or negaitve, can easily affect the other economies.

Although economic crisis increased its effect, the developed countries rejected to make structural reform to overcome the reasons of the crisis. Instead, they only increased the emission of Dollars and Euro, and decreased the interest rates. However, unless structural reforms are made, the countries cannot prevent the economic crises. They can only postpone the crises,but the new crises will be much more devastating than the previous one. Therefore, in my opinion, in order to prevent the negative effects of the expected crises, the structural reforms have to be done by western countries for the current economic crises.

There is a very big correlation between the economic crises and political instability in the world. For example, after 1929 the great depression, the Second World War broke out. Although lots of the historian accused the Hitler as being  the guilty of the war, there are very few people investigating the how Hitler could succeed to collect millions of supporters. Since Germany was defeated in World War I, it experienced very huge economic crises and hyperinflation. Due to the severe living conditions, Hitler could succeed to find supporters in Germany. After great depression, to overcome the congestion of economic crises on their citizens, Hitler and other western countries increased their expenditure on weapon. As a result, the WW second broke down in 1939. In fact the wars are the very easy method of canalizing the people to one direction and to suppress people’s dissatisfaction in the political life. 

Today, the negative effects of the global crises has been continuing. The EU saved the Greece reluctantly but most probably Greece cannot pay her debt on time. Besides, public debt of the western countries, both local and general governments, has been increasing steadily. Their population is getting older every day and as a result of economic crises fascist attacks has been increasing in west. Since politicians fear that social unrest of western people can be increased if the structural reforms are done, no one can dare to make these reforms until now. However, sooner or later these reforms have be done.

Because of the internationalization of the production process, most of the company has been restructuring their firms in accordance with the vertical specialization since the 1980s. As a result of the globalization, this type of organization becomes necessary for the firms to live and compete with their rivals. However, this kind of structure makes the countries more dependent to each other. In other words, no one can escape the negative result of the economic crises in contemporary world. 

When the economic situation cannot be corrected by politicians, to overcome and suppress the reaction of the people, the countries may increase the tension in the world and this policy may cause the irreversible conflicts in the world. Today, the countries try to postpone the economic crises by increasing the emissions. However, this policy is wrong and, as Bank for International Settlements, (BIS) said, this policy only prepare the infrastructure of the coming economic crisis. Therefore, in the next ten year the world will experienced great depression and this crises will also increase the political conflict among the countries.

There are 3 fault lines in the world: the Middle East, Caucasian and Far East. In the Middle East the war has been continuing since the Arab Spring and it will continue in the coming decade. People living in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya are currently living the war condition in Middle East. Israel, Persian and western countries, especially England hves been trying to create instability in this region and Turkey to prevent its development by including the Turkey to the war. 

To do this, they are using ISIS, PKK and other marginal illegal organization in Turkey and in Middle East. In addition, by allowing the spread of Iran to Iraq, Yemen and Syria, the western countries have been surrounding Turkey. Until now, Turkey can succeed to protect its country from the war, but because of the attack of ISIS and PKK, Turkey hit the ISIS and PKK targets to prevent terrorist movement. Although the western countries seem as if fighting against the fundamentalism and terrorism in the world, they did not give adequate support to Turkey in its war against terrorism and Syria events. Until 2011, nobody knows the name of ISIS but today, this terrorist group has been controlling the half of the Iraq and Syria. They named themselves as if Islamic states but they did not fight against Israel or other non-Muslim states, and they have been killing only Muslims. Do you believe that this terrorist group can be found and control the more than half of the Syria and Iraq without the support of Israel, England, USA and other western countries? Honestly I do not believe. This terrorist group is the child of the mentioned states in the world. Everybody knows that there is a huge oil and gas reserves in East Mediterranean Sea around the Cyprus Island. Every western countries, Israel and Russian want to take maximum share from this huge oil and gas reserves. Most probably, the Third World War may start because of this share-grabbing race in the Mediterranean.

The second fault lines also directly or indirectly related with Turkey. Because Chechenia and other Muslim societies fought with Russian in 1990s. Russia did not permit Chechenia to declare their independence. By using the heavy weapon, they managed to defeat Chechen fighters. However, they cannot terminate the separatist movement completely and the war has been continuing even if its intensity was decreased. Today the war between the west and Russia is made on Ukraine. Since EU wanted to decrease the effects of Russia in older east bloc countries, it accepted membership of Czech, Slovakia, Romania, Baltic countries in 2000s. Although their appeal was too later than Turkey, EU accepted their membership at about ten years. Apart from these countries, EU and western countries have been trying to decrease the influence of Russian on Ukraine. EU signed an agreement with Ukraine to increase its relationship with Ukraine and to realize its aims. However, Russian showed very strong response to this agreement and occupied the Crimea. In addition, it supported the separatist Russian people in Ukraine and Ukraine was lost most of its land in this war. Since EU and USA has been battling with economic crises, they could not give enough support to Ukraine. However, western countries will not give up their policy and most probably they will try to get revenge. 

Since the spirit of the jihad is very strong among the Muslim societies, most probably they will use the Caucasian people against Russia. In here, most probably they will try to confront Russia with Turkey to hit two birds with one stone. Because, there has been a strong relationship between the Caucasian people and Turkey since the Ottoman period. They are Muslim and they have lots of relatives in Turkey especially in Black Sea Region and İstanbul. Therefore, any events in Caucasian region directly affect Turkish people’s emotion against Russia. Besides, Turkey and Russia cannot agree on Syria and Ukraine policy. By using the separatist movements, western countries can increase the tension between Turkey and Russia and this may cause severe unwanted consequences in this region. Therefore, Turkey and Russia should be ready against the provocation in Caucasian region and they should solve every conflict by negotiation. Otherwise, western countries and Israel may create instability to stop the development of Turkey and pervasion of Russia in old east bloc countries.

The third fault line in the world is the Far-East region. Since the time of Deng, China has been using capitalist policy in economy and attract enormous foreign direct investment in his country. Today, China has become the world's manufacturing center. Because of the internationalization of the production process, at least one part of nearly every goods is produced by China in temporary world. It becomes second biggest economy in the world, and in two or three decades, it will be first economy in the world. Today, China has very big population, it can produce very heavy weapons (from long-range missiles to atom bomb), and advanced technologic products. With the strong economic development and growth rate, it will most probably be one of the super power of the world in 2 decades. Its energy needs has been increasing steadily, hence it has been trying to pervade in Africa and develop relationship between oil reach countries. It has also very big influence on the North Korea. 

Because of the increasing energy needs, China wants to get its own domestic and reliable energy resources. It has been known that there are more than 200 billion barrel oil reserves in South China Sea. However, there is a disagreement about the ownership of the islands located this region. While Japan argues that these islands belong to him, China does not accept this argument. Last months, both of the countries sent their navy force to that region. In fact these islands are only the visible part of the iceberg. the real reason of the conflict is the rich oil reserves and development of China against USA and Japan in this region.

Japan, USA and South Korea act together against China and North Korea in this area. USA does not want China to spread in Asia Pacific region too much. Therefore, USA is trying to limit China’s pervasion in these area. It reinforce its army in Pacific Region to control the development of China. also it invaded Afghanistan to surround the China and Russia. Nonetheless, because of the economic interdependence of these countries, the war is continuing implicitly. China has already begun the search for alternatives to decrease the dependency of economy to USA. It found BRICS and alternative banks against the USA and west. It has been its American Bond and buying gold for its reserves. I hope my prediction will be wrong but if the economic crises continue in USA and west and if the fight cannot be prevented in Middle East, China will pervade firstly in Pacific Region and then towards the Middle Asia and Middle East regions. Because, in order to protect its economic wellbeing and canalize its citizens it will need energy resources. As mentioned,  there is huge proved oil reserves in South China Sea. Undoubtly, China will want to control this reserves and to do this it can fight with Japan. China can also use conflict between the North Korea and South Korea and this policy may create new war between the Japan, South Korea, China and North Korea. All of these development create new instability in the world and the third WW will begin. If China cannot be stopped by Japan and his alliances, the second target of the country will be Middle Asia and Middle East. As Mongolian made in the medieval period, it can pervade and invade from Pacific to Middle East region in the future.

Of course lots of the people may evaluate our prediction as conspiracy theory. But, if the countries feel themselves as unrivaled and if no one can limit their appetite to spread, all of these development can be realized very easily in 2 or 3 decades. There are very similar events in history like being Alexander the Great, Roma and Great Mogul (Cengiz Han) events. Therefore, the effects of economic crises will be very heavy and to prevents the war and conflict the new alternative world system should be established as soon as possible. In addition, the countries should act together to develop the world and to avoid the war. Otherwise, mosty probably the border of the world will be much more different than today's border. 

Sincerely…
  Ömer DEMİRDAŞ

* This essay was published at www.fikiranaliz.com web site on 3 January in 2018. Since the web site collapsed, the article was published again in this web site.